Deadly Odds

In the 1980s the British government had scientists calculate the odds of certain sorts of deaths to help the public understand the relative safety of nuclear power. The UK's Mirror broke the document yesterday. Apparently you are close to five times as likely to die falling out of bed as to be killed by the escape of radiation from a nearby nuclear power plant. They concluded that the death due to bathtub drowning is 15 times more likely than the radiation scenario. It is neat to see the odds of various sorts of accidents given how useful it can be to come up with comparisons to understand risk better.

1 August 2006

ODDS WAYS TO DIE

IF YOU THOUGHT NUCLEAR WAS RISKY, HERE ARE MORE

By Matt Roper

DEATH may be the only certainty in life - but how it comes about is anything but certain.

Papers released from secret governement archives this week revealed that in 1980 government scientists were told to calculate the exact chances of a Brit being killed by a falling asteroid.

The study was an attempt to persuade the public that nuclear power was safe, and that there were plenty of other things that were statistically more lethal than a neighbourhood reactor.

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After much consideration, the men in white coats calculated that that one member of the public would be killed by an asteroid every 7,000 years.

Here the Daily Mirror looks at some other causes of death -and just what the odds are of your meeting your Maker in that way...

300,000,000/1 SHARK ATTACK

AROUND 40 people are killed every year from shark attacks, with the numbers increasing as more people take holidays on coasts where sharks live.

300,000,000/1 FAIRGROUND ACCIDENT

THE worst rollercoaster accident in Britain was in 1972 when five children were killed on the Big Dipper in Battersea, London, when one of the cars broke loose and collided with another. Just last week 29 people were injured when the Runaway Mine Train at Alton Towers split in two.

250,000,000/1 FALLING COCONUT

COCONUTS apparently kill around 150 people every year. Falling from a height of 80 feet, they can build up an impact speed of 50 mph.

11,000,000/1 PLANE CRASH

PLANE crashes worldwide claim 1,300 people every year. Young men are most likely to emerge from the wreckage alive - and 12 per cent of passengers who survive the impact will die from shock later.

10,000,000/1 KILLED BY LIGHTNING

IN the UK around five people are killed by being hit by lightning every year. And men are four times more likely to be struck than women.

10,000,000/1

KILLED BY THE ESCAPE OF RADIATION FROM A NEARBY NUCLEAR POWER STATION.

THE chances of an explosion at a nuclear reactor are increasing with the risk of terrorism and as conventional fuels run out. The Chernobyl nuclear disaster and its aftermath has killed an estimated 30,000 people.

9,300,000/1 DYING IN TERRORIST ATTACK

LAST year there were 651 significant international terrorist attacks worldwide, killing nearly 2,000 people.

5,000,000/1 SCALDED BY HOT TAP WATER.

CHILDREN under five are most at risk, with 126 accidents reported every year in Britain. In Japan, around 150 people die from hot water scalding every year.

4,400,000/1 LEFT-HANDED PEOPLE KILLED USING A RIGHT-HANDED PRODUCT.

MORE than 2,500 left-handed people are killed every year around the world from using equipment meant for right-handed people. The right-handed power saw is the most deadly item.

3,500,000/1 DYING OF A SNAKE BITE.

SNAKE bites kill an estimated 25,000 people a year. More people die from snakebite in India than in any other country in the world, with the total death toll estimated I to average 10 - 12,000 annually.

3,000,000/1 DYING FROM FOOD POISONING

MORE than 79,000 cases of food poisoning were reported last year in the UK, while every year around 200 people die as a result of eating contaminated food.

2,300,000/1 DYING FROM FALLING OFF A LADDER.

ON average 15 people die from falling off ladders every year in Britain, and around 1,200 suffer serious injuries. A quarter of all falls happen off ladders.

2,000,000/1 DYING AFTER FALLING OUT OF BED.

IN Britain around 20 people die from falling out of bed every year, with the young and the elderly most at risk.

685,000/1 DROWNING IN THE BATH.

A HIGHER percentage of people drown in their bath water than in public swimming pools, with young children and the elderly most at risk. Around 25 babies drown in baths every year.

500,000/1 BEING KILLED IN A TRAIN CRASH.

DESPITE a number of fatal crashes, public transport is still the safest way to travel. Buses are even safer than trains, with the odds of being killed 13 million to one.

43,500/1 BEING KILLED IN AN ACCIDENT AT WORK

MORE accidents happen at work than anywhere else. Every year there are more than 25,000 serious workplace accidents, killing around 300 people in the UK.

8,000/1 KILLED IN A ROAD ACCIDENT.

EVERY year 1,500 car drivers and adult passengers die in road smashes, while around 1,000 pedestrians and cyclists die in road accidents. Worldwide, over 3,000 people are killed in road crashes daily.

5/1 DYING FROM CANCER

AROUND 130,000 people die from cancer every \ year, of whom 65,000 are ' aged under 75. The most common killers are lung, breast, colon and prostate cancer.

2.5/1 DYING FROM A HEART ATTACK OR STROKE

THE leading cause of death in Britain, coronary heart disease and strokes account for over 200,000 deaths every I year. Someone has a heart attack every two minutes.

matt.roper@mirror.co.uk