Tuesday, September 25, 2007

How do candidates compare in their swing state appeal?

in general i am very wary of "electability" arguments but it's interesting to see how various Dems compare with the Repubs in swing state this election cycle. This data comes to us from SUSA via Dailykos:

This month, responding to the complaints, SUSA decided to poll other Democrats in key states besides Clinton.

MISSOURI 11 Electoral Votes; 2004 results: Bush 53, Kerry 46

Obama 46 Obama 48 Obama 51
Giuliani 44 Thompson 45 Romney 40

Clinton 45 Clinton 48 Clinton 51
Giuliani 48 Thompson 45 Romney 40

Edwards 47 Edwards 50 Edwards 56
Giuliani 42 Thompson 40 Romney 32

OHIO 20 Electoral Votes; 2004 results: Bush 51, Kerry 49

Obama 39 Obama 42 Obama 45
Giuliani 52 Thompson 50 Romney 46

Clinton 47 Clinton 48 Clinton 52
Giuliani 48 Thompson 47 Romney 42

Edwards 47 Edwards 52 Edwards 56
Giuliani 48 Thompson 43 Romney 36

IOWA 7 Electoral Votes; 2004 results: Bush 50, Kerry 49

Obama 50 Obama 51 Obama 51
Giuliani 42 Thompson 41 Romney 41

Clinton 50 Clinton 50 Clinton 50
Giuliani 42 Thompson 44 Romney 43

Edwards 53 Edwards 54 Edwards 54
Giuliani 39 Thompson 37 Romney 38

NEW MEXICO 5 Electoral Votes; 2004 results: Bush 50, Kerry 49

Obama 46 Obama 52 Obama 55
Giuliani 46 Thompson 41 Romney 36

Clinton 51 Clinton 53 Clinton 54
Giuliani 43 Thompson 42 Romney 39

Edwards 48 Edwards 52 Edwards 54
Giuliani 44 Thompson 37 Romney 34

It was through the electability trap that we got John Kerry so let's not get too excited here but it is very encouraging (shocking!?) to note that the most progressive guy is also the most "electable". Swing Voters seem to find Edwards sharp contrasts with Republicans convincing. I hope that this is a statement about his populism rather than his race/gender. Unfortunately it is not easy to separate those factors out as all the republicans are white men and none of the other leading democratic women, such as Seblius, are running. All this to say that I am drawn to Edwards claim that he is the candidate of change and will stand up and fight special interests. I don't see Obama having the stomach or HRC having the desire to win that fight.

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